Green Remodeling

There are a number of reasons people overlook the possibility of being more "green" in their remodeling projects.  Some people simply can't afford the extra costs associated with green projects - the conventional wisdom is that by spending a little more now, you can actually save money over time.  Some people wrangle over the decision of whether to embark on larger projects or simply focus on smaller remodeling projects.  And some people simply don't worry about the amount of carbon dioxide we pump into the atmosphere.

But for those of you interested in looking for greener ways to remodel, whether it be a small fix-up job or a major addition/rebuild, I have just the book for you.

"Practical Green Remodeling" by Barry Katz is an excellent resource for finding ways to become more energy-efficient with your home.  Barry stresses that the book isn't a "how-to" but more of a "what-to" - giving readers multiple options to explore how green they want to be or can afford to be.  Below you will find an Amazon link to the book if you are interested in checking it out!

Happy Holidays!


Practical Green Remodeling by Barry Katz

Drowning

One of the serious problems facing the housing market in America is the concept of "underwater" homeowners.  Essentially, an underwater homeowner owes more on their house (i.e. their mortgage amount) than they could sell the house for (their market value).  With housing prices down 40-50% in many areas, it is easy to see how this is a problem.  For example, Jim (completely fictional) bought his house in 2007, just before housing prices fell.  He paid $500,000 for it and took out a $400,000 loan (20% conventional loan).  However, just a few years later, his house is only worth $250,000 on the market and he still owes $375,000.  In essence, Jim is $125,000 "underwater."  The only way for Jim to move would be to negotiate with his bank to either forgive the difference, or set up an arrangement where Jim would pay off the $125,000.  It doesn't take an Ivy League-educated mathematician to see that the math just doesn't add up.

The reason I bring this scenario up is because of a new report released by CoreLogic, an information and analytics firm that studies the real estate market.  According to their numbers, some 11 million households are "underwater," essentially trapped in their home for years to come.  This number works out to about 22.5% of ALL mortgaged homes.

According to CoreLogic, during an average or better real estate market, only about 5% of mortgage homes are underwater.  This creates a certain fluidity in the market and gives almost every homeowner the chance to move on if they so desire.  But in today's market, this just simply isn't the case, and the prospects for getting out of this situation don't look strong, at least in the short-term. 

The Sacred Cow of Real Estate

With the nation's finances in dire shape, elected officials will have to make tough choices in the coming years.  Federal spending is at its second highest nominal dollar amount (2009 being the highest) in the face of two wars and the "Great Recession," tax revenues have plummeted as a result of massive tax cuts and a sluggish economy, and the gap between the two continues to escalate.

These are the kind of tough choices that make politicians wince.  But unfortunately, we've got into this mess and something needs to be done to get out of it.

Numerous deficit-reduction proposals have begun emerging and the Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction, long-held as the "sacred cow" of real estate investing, is increasingly coming under the chopping block.  With home ownership a central theme to the American dream, I felt it would be a good idea to investigate these potential changes and how they might affect homeowners. 

First, it is important to note that of all the advanced economies in the world, only 4 allow personal debt interest to be deducted from their taxable income.  These countries are:

1)  The United States
2)  Sweden
3)  Switzerland
4)  The Netherlands

Perhaps homeowners in the United States have taken for granted their ability to write off mortgage interest.  As you can see, very few countries have laws that allow such a practice.

There are some important rules that govern that ability of homeowners to write-off mortgage interest.  First, mortgage interest deductions are only allowed on primary and second-homes.  Investment properties are not often allowed the deduction.  Also, only the interest paid on the first $1 million of debt is permitted.  These might seem like strict rules, but the reality is that very few Americans own multiple homes, and even fewer have over $1 million in mortgage-related debt.

Currently, the mortgage interest deduction is one of the largest subsidies operated by the federal government.  On average, the federal government spends about $100 billion annually to continue the subsidy.  But does it that important?  Does the mortgage interest deduction really improve the level of homeownership in the United States?

Politically, yes, it does.  Defending the mortgage interest deduction has become commonplace for legislators.  Can you imagine what the FOX News' and the MSNBC's of the world would have to say about a politician that "supports taking more money away from you"?  Of course not, because legislators from both parties have been more than reluctant to call for anything other than a continuation of the status quo.

The real question becomes, who does the mortgage interest deduction benefit most and is it achieving its stated goal of preserving and increasing the level of American homeownership?

Although politicians say one thing, economists (you know, the ones who actually analyze the data and attempt to give unbiased, logic-based conclusions/recommendations!) are almost united in their opposition to the full subsidy.  As it turns out the data shows that, although the interest deduction appears to be a good deal for everybody, the winners are those at the very top of the income distribution.  And those at the bottom rungs of income?  They see the least of the benefits.  In fact, in some areas with particularly strong land-use regulations (think urban areas) the mortgage interest deduction actually HURTS homeownership, particularly among lower-income individuals.

So what should be done?  It seems both legislatively unfeasible and economically irresponsible to do away with the entire deduction.  It has become a way of life for Americans and a major disruption would undoubtedly do more harm than good.  I think an effective compromise would be to roll back some of the subsides for the highest-earners (those that need the deduction least) and use the saved revenues to encourage broader home-ownership for lower-income levels.  These incentives could be something similar to the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's tax credit of 2008/2009, or they could be in the form of down-payment assistance.  Regardless of the form the incentives take, a well-targeted program would benefit those at the bottom and would start to bring the housing market back to rosier days.

Uptown Update

It is hard to find strong data about the real estate market, particularly for specific neighborhoods.  For this reason, I plan on writing posts that focus on certain areas (i.e. downtown, Uptown, Kenwood, Northeast, etc...) and providing information that readers can 1) understand, but also 2) find useful. 

This week we will focus on Uptown.  More specifically, we will focus on the 55408 zip code, which runs east-west from 5th Ave S to Lake Calhoun, and north-south from 26th Street to 36th Street. 

Price
Since the crash of the housing bubble started in 2006/2007, the median sales price in Uptown has fallen about 25%, down to $150,000 from a high just over $200,000.  While this is undoubtedly a steep decline, it is actually better than we have seen in many areas of the country.  In some areas of California and Nevada, prices have fallen 50%.  Relative to these states, the housing market in Minnesota has fared much better.

Median Sales Price - 55408 (Uptown) - January 2005 through October 2010

As you can see, prices have fallen steadily since the beginning of 2007.  Things really collapsed in 2008/early 2009, during the height of the financial crisis.  You can see that prices took a slight uptick in late 2009, likely the result of increased market activity due to the first time home buyer's tax credit.  Things have leveled off since, and some have argued that the tax credit did nothing but pull from inevitable future sales. 

Where are Prices Headed?
It is difficult to determine with any sort of precision what will happen to prices in the coming months/years, but there are indicators that can tell us what to expect.  One such is indicator is the relationship between what is coming on the market and what is leaving the market (see:  supply and demand).   Here's what the housing supply looks like:

Months Supply of Homes for Sale - 55408 (Uptown) - January 2005 through October 2010

 

You can see that at the tail-end of the housing boom, there was very little supply on the market.  This lead to multiple-offer situations, intense bidding wars, and ultimately higher prices.  As the housing and financial crisis set in, buyers evaporated from the market and the amount of inventory skyrocketed.  This lead to prices being driven down (and thus, the 25% drop we have seen since 2007).  Inventory slowly began coming down and appears to have flat-lined a bit.  What about the average number of days on the market to sell?

Average Number of Days on Market (CDOM) - 55408 (Uptown) - January 2007 through October 2010

As the graph clearly depicts, it is taking longer and longer for houses to sell once they come to market.  This results in offers being lower than list price, which can either slowly bring prices down or cause small price increases to disappear.

Conclusion
Like many real estate markets, Uptown is in a bit of a holding pattern.  Buyers are reluctant to buy (no equity in their current homes, job losses, pay cuts, etc..) and homes continue to come on the market.  Inventory is still high and prices are stagnant.  Ultimately, the future of the Uptown real estate market depends on a number of things, including local economic conditions, incentives to buy, and larger macroeconomic trends, among others.

Minnesota Winters

Another year, another winter in Minnesota.  Although the amount of snowfall up to this point has been below where most people imagined it would be, this weekend's ice storm might have made up for it.  The rain began Saturday afternoon/early evening and continued into Sunday, causing upwards of 350 crashes just in the metro area.  Hundreds of drivers sat stuck on Saturday night while MNDOT salt trucks rushed to hit the pavement.  It is Monday morning as I write this post, and although the streets are noticeably better, they are still slick.

But rain hasn't caused just the streets to be icy (to the point of serious danger) - sidewalks are also adversely affected.  To help residents combat icy sidewalks, the City of Minneapolis is giving away sand (and by giving away, I mean using tax money) for residents.  The city has set up 3 locations for residents to bring a bucket and get some sand for their sidewalks.  The locations are:

 

    6036 Harriet Ave S

    Minneapolis, MN 55419

 

    1809 Washington St NE

    Minneapolis, MN 55418

 

    27th Street E and Longfellow Ave S

    Minneapolis, MN 55407

For more information, please visit the City of Minneapolis' Website.